Transition Year?

AN ARTICLE BY MATTY

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After two disappointing draws to start the season, we’ve seen a variety of reactions in the fan base. Many still think we can compete for the big trophies. Some think the season’s over after two games. Others think the team needs tweaks, such as a change in system or in personnel (midfielder transfer target inserted here) and that once those tweaks are made, the problem will be solved. But I saw Mike raise an interesting view in the match thread that I thought I’d expand on, because that view might be the most logical move based on what we’ve seen so far.

It is too early to draw conclusions for the season and foolhardy to condemn a season after two games. But you know me. Whenever I see something brought up by others or think of something myself I try to align it with the club’s thoughts. I’ve always believed the more knowledgeable I am about what Klopp or Ward or the executives of Liverpool FC might be thinking, the more knowledgeable I am as a fan. The inner workings of a football club, the philosophy they live by, interest me probably unlike any other sport I follow. But enough about me. You’re here because of the title of the article and the reasons I think this could be a transition year. I’ll probably be wrong and the club could make me look foolish for doubting this year’s squad and their ability to win every trophy possible. I’m just trying to gain insight into why we’ve done what we’ve done in recent times.

I guess firstly I’ll talk about age and the decline typically associated with age. I know, it’s a bit rich hearing a young whippersnapper like myself talk about age and some might accuse me of ageism, but outside of the physical freaks like James Milner, fatigue and age can combine to form a reasonable level of decline in most players. No, it’s not like the olden days where most players were done by the age of 30. However, it is typical to still see a decline start around the age of 32 or 33. The game against Fulham was the first time ever that Liverpool had six players aged 30 or older in the lineup. While those six are absolute quality most days, it does show that the current iteration of the team will change rather drastically in the next couple of seasons.

Of those six players, I see only two possibly still being starters in three years: Salah and van Dijk. Firmino looks past it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave at the end of the season on a free. Matip and Thiago are both free agents in 2024 and, with their injury concerns, I’m not sure either of them get a contract renewal. And then there’s Henderson. While I have no doubt he will retire at Liverpool, I also think that, whether players of improved quality are brought in or just through natural decline, he will no longer be starting for us, possibly by next year. I love Hendo and think he’s quality, but the captain may take on a role similar to Millie’s current role as he enters the twilight years of his career. However, players can be replaced, especially if they’re a clean fit for the system we run. Which brings about some questions for me as to why we took some gambles in the transfer market recently.

By no means am I suggesting Darwin Nunez won’t be a success at Liverpool. Despite his idiotic headbutt against Palace, I still think he’s got everything necessary to be a top, top striker for years to come. But it is interesting that, as a replacement for Firmino, we decided to go with a true striker instead of a false nine. And yes, I said a replacement for Firmino. Because Luis Diaz was the replacement for Mane. While everything indicates we would’ve signed Mane to a contract extension as we did Salah this summer, that was after he put up some insane goal scoring numbers in the second half of last season. Where he proved he was still the Mane of old.

Now, as seamlessly as Diaz fit into what we were doing last season, I also think he is more of a gamble than we might think. I’d argue he is such an expressive and off-script type of player, capable of creating magic with his feet, that he might not be a seamless fit once asked to properly fit into Klopp’s scheme. I think we’ve seen that a bit so far this season, his lone goal coming from when he stopped playing within the team structure and just kept running until he found the back of the net. Otherwise, he hasn’t looked like quite the seamless fit this season.

Another gamble in the market comes from the Bellingham saga. So we wait a year to sign the future of our midfield. I get it. However, it does seem a bit off to me that a team coming off of such a great season would put its midfield’s success into the hands of two youngsters in Elliott and Carvalho. Now why do I put it that way? Look at it this way. Thiago, Keita and Ox will forever be injury risks. Milner is at the point in his career where starting every game wouldn’t be ideal for him. And lastly, Curtis Jones, while he is a promising young talent, isn’t yet a reliable option due to injuries and inconsistency. I also understand the argument that this was the exact same midfield that got us through every game last season, so why should we be complaining about it?

I would say there’s a couple issues with it, and some of those issues are shared by other players in the squad. Firstly, there’s considerable injury risks with half of the midfield group between Thiago, Keita, Ox and Jones. Secondly, consider that there is very little pace between our typical starting trio of Henderson, Fabinho and Thiago. Lastly consider that three of them will likely hit their decline soon due to age and Fabinho isn’t that far behind them. What I’m saying is it needs a revamp, a youth movement, and that’s where Elliott and Carvalho come in. They’re probably ready and can definitely impact this season. But are they enough to turn our fortunes around in that area of the park? It is crucial that the midfield serves as the central link to the forwards now that Bobby cannot do so effectively anymore. Elliott and Carvalho are our hope in this department.

But relying on kids to make the step up and keep the train chugging along can work out brilliantly or lead to some struggles. And I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say we’ve definitely struggled in some areas this season. Our finishing has gone cold again, our defense looks older and a bit creaky, and Fulham ran rings around us the way we used to do to teams. However, not all is lost. We have youth in the form of Diaz, Nunez, Elliott, Carvalho, Jota, Konate, Trent, and Kostas. They are the next generation. And with the way our tried and true veterans have looked so far, I think it might be time to turn the team over to that youth. I think Salah and Virgil have enough quality to stick around in the starting lineup for another 3-4 seasons, Fabinho and Robbo aren’t far behind there.

The rest? They’ll either be gone or be squad players at best. This might be the time to start transition, which means we might not compete for multiple trophies this season. But with the way we look so far, that might not be in the cards anyways if we stick with the old guard. Might as well give the youth some experience so that we’re better than ever next season. Add Bellingham, I have to think some other signings are made with Firmino, Keita and Ox all likely leaving (along with their expensive wages).

The midfield gets rebooted with young superstars, the forward line has better chemistry, the defense gets a boost with Konate hopefully becoming a full-time starter. I genuinely don’t see why we can’t compete this season if we give the youth a chance. But we have to give them that chance first. And that means the results might not be quite as good, but it is best for both the short-term and long-term future if they get chemistry instead of trying to stick with veterans that might not be the same as they once were.