Is FSG’s moneyball a feasible plan for success?
AN ARTICLE BY MATTY
Six home losses in a row. Failing to win either game against Fulham. Losing to West Brom. This
season has been one where a lot has been called into question, with the calls of the now infamous FSGOUT crowd growing louder. So, I ask a question that might not have an answer
while also analyzing the past few transfer windows under Jurgen Klopp. Was FSG’s model the
reason for success? And, furthermore, can that success be found once more?
There’s this guy called UrinatingTree on YouTube who makes some great American sports
videos. In one of them, he describes how Moneyball, the name given to FSG’s strategy, has
started to fail in baseball. Here’s the link: https://youtu.be/nSqmcAFgHGQ. In this video, he
explains how Moneyball initially caught big teams by surprise. Using the vastly expanding
world on baseball analytics, teams with little cash built up the prospect pool (American version
of football academies), bought undervalued players and watched them outplay their contract,
and, while never winning a World Series, changed the face of baseball forever. So why isn’t it
working now? The big teams, with better resources, have caught up. Look at the Los Angeles
Dodgers, for example. Loads upon loads of young players emerge in the organization like a
factory. Big contracts handed out to big-time players only to get over the hump. The core of
the team is built off of underrated signings, training up players, and having them homegrown.
Because the big teams have caught up to the analytics craze and have more of them available
due to their vast sums of cash, the Moneyball teams are still good, still successful, but not
contenders anymore.
So how can this be applied to football? Well, it’s shown that there’s two types of Moneyball
users. Liverpool nowadays falls into the first, or original, tier. We are a team that heavily uses
analytics, finds underrated gems, and turns them into stars. Only in the case of Virgil and
Alisson have we bought ready-made stars. The second tier, emerging to be much more
powerful than the first ever was, is made up of City and Chelsea, mainly, but also teams such
as Bayern and Madrid. These teams are similarly avoiding huge signings, but rather making big
ones that don’t backfire because they’re backed by analytics. What stings the most for me is
that FSG used to be in this second tier, but have almost fallen back into the first tier. The
second tier almost guarantees trophies. The first tier, as we’ve seen, can lead to winning, but
no full-out Moneyball team has won a championship anywhere. Foreboding signs for the
future, perhaps?
Why do I say we were in the second tier? Look at our spending from 2016 to 2018. In 2016, we
bought Sadio Mane for £35 million, Gini Wijnaldum for £25 million, and we brought in Joel
Matip for free. An outlay of £60 million for three key contributors to the current squad, following
the Dodgers’ style of Moneyball: making underrated purchases but also spending enough to
keep up. The next year brought massive signings: Virgil van Dijk for £75 million, Mo Salah for
£40 million, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain for £35 million, and Jock’s love affair for £8 million. A
massive outlay that, albeit paid for partially by the Coutinho transfer, showed our ambition to
win and again followed the principles of second tier Moneyball. Then came the summer of
2018, with Alisson being bought for £65 million, Naby Keita for £52 million, Fabinho for £43
million, and Xherdan Shaqiri for £13 million. And we didn’t have any major outgoings to pay for
it either. Yes, we spent a ton to bring this team together, it’s what made us great. Then, all of a
sudden, we stopped paying up.
So, why did we stop paying up? Well, it was rumored that Klopp didn’t want to add to the
squad, he wanted to give them the opportunity to make a run at the Premier League. Now,
while his idea worked, it hasn’t translated over to this year. The biggest purchase we’ve made
since then was Jota, followed by Thiago, Tsimikas, and Minamino. That’s all we’ve done in the
past two years now. We’ve added two world-class players, a brilliant pair that had kept us from
falling early in the year. Yet, with both injured and with Thiago in particular struggling for form,
we’re seeing the effects of keeping the same team for years at a time. While continuity is great
and you want to keep the gang around for as long as possible, you could also add more to it to
prevent or delay the aging process. SB made a brilliant comment about how we couldn’t afford
to be sentimental about players such as Mane and Salah, how their pace will fall off soon if it
hasn’t already. I’m interested, though, to see how much longer they could last if we bring in
adequate backups. Jota is really the only ideal backup for the front three, which is a problem
for sure.
Now, we know we’ve got various problems, but how could FSG have solved them.
Well, if they kept investing like they had the previous three years, here’s a possible answer.
I read a couple articles regarding the “ideal” squads from the past two summers. In the
summer of 2019, when we had record profits, we only bought Adrian and a couple youth
talents (although Harvey Elliott is amazing). Instead, had we kept in line with previous spending,
perhaps we buy Bruno Fernandes for £50 million (making Finchy’s heart grow three sizes),
David Neres for £45 million, Kieran Tierney, the third wheel in Jock’s love affair with Robbo, for
£15 million and Jack Butland from Stoke, once Mignolet left, for a similar fee to what we got for
the Club Brugge man. We would’ve gotten the creative midfielder we lacked, a brilliant backup
winger, a brilliant left back, and a better backup keeper than Mignolet or Adrian. Had we spent
while on top, with the record profits we had, we’d be much better off. Then, we make similar
purchases in 2020, except swapping out Tsimikas for Max Aarons and adding Erling Haaland in
January (with some of the leftover profits from the summer) and Dayot Upamecano in the
summer. Imagine that team. Actually, don’t imagine it, let me write it out:
GK: Alisson, Jack Butland, Caoimhin Kelleher
LB: Andy Robertson, Kieran Tierney
RB: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Max Aarons
CB: Virgil van Dijk, Dayot Upamecano, Joel Matip, Joe Gomez
CDM: Fabinho, Jordan Henderson
CM: Naby Keita, Georginio Wijnaldum, Thiago, Curtis Jones
CAM: Bruno Fernandes, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
LW: Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota
ST: Erling Haaland, Roberto Firmino
RW: Mo Salah, David Neres
Now, why these purchases and how do they make us better? It’s twofold: the signings improve
the squad while keeping it healthy. With Upamecano in the fold, perhaps Gomez and Matip
don’t get injured as a result of overwork and we still have a working defense. With Fernandes
in, perhaps Keita doesn’t get injured as often and turns out to be a massive success. Maybe
Trent’s levels don’t fall off with a competitive option behind him. Jock gets a night with two
Scotsmen now instead of one, while Y.O. gets to drool over Haaland being here. Finchy even
gets to spend every night dreaming about his lover wearing the 18 shirt for Liverpool instead of
United. EVERYONE WINS! So why didn’t we spend?
Well, let’s take a look. The horrible reasons many will give for this is that “FSG is tight with spending”, which is obviously false given their previous financial outlay. So, why not spend? Even with the
pandemic, we still had enough profits to spend almost £80 million in the summer to bolster the
team with Tsimikas, Thiago, and Jota. Well, FSG isn’t in the greatest place financially right now.
The Boston Red Sox, their long-standing cash cow, have tanked in the last few years, resulting
in fewer profits and slashing in spending in that organization. It’s why Red Sox fans are bitter
with FSG now as well: they essentially broke up a team with World Series pedigree after they
failed to live up to expectations. Like Liverpool now, FSG is treating the Red Sox using first tier
Moneyball principles instead of second tier Moneyball. And, perhaps like the Red Sox and their
underperformance in 2019, maybe Liverpool’s awful 2021 campaign will result in further salary
cuts and the potential departures of legends such as Mane or Salah. Between the pandemic
and a downturn in results from a long-standing profit creator, perhaps FSG don’t have the
money to support two major franchises anymore.
So, what would that lead to? Well, given the recent shares of Liverpool FC that are being sold to prospective investors, I think FSG are already preparing to sell. Watch for this whenever the economy rebounds, because they won’t want to sell at anything less than peak value. What FSG should be
commended for is getting ahead of the analytical curve in football, letting Klopp build his team
his way, letting Edwards have control, and consistently driving up the value of this club. They
saved us from administration, and for that we will always be grateful. However, with the recent
penny-pinching from them, our levels have dropped to the point where we’ll have to rebuild
much sooner than anyone thought. They’ve been fantastic owners, but they may not be
remembered as such for that, and it’s a real shame.
So, where does this leave us? Even if FSG do sell up like I think they will at some point in the
next two years, is their Moneyball a plan for success? In a way, yes. We’ve won with Moneyball
before, taking advantage of the analytical market and player development to find gems and
ready-made stars alike. Yet, that Moneyball came because FSG were willing to inject the funds
necessary to make big moves for players such as Alisson and Virgil. Now, with no major outlay
outside of Thiago and Jota since June of 2019, we’ve fallen a bit behind when we could’ve
feasibly jumped even further ahead. I guarantee we’d be in the top four hunt with Haaland and
Bruno, let alone Upamecano as well. So, Moneyball is feasible when combined with adequate
funding. However, without the adequate funding, you end up like the Oakland A’s, the original
Moneyball franchise. They’ve come close so many times over the years, constantly retooling to
keep the budget low and the team in good shape. Yet they’ve never managed to make it to a
championship match, let alone win one. Could that be Liverpool’s future as a result of the
pandemic? Time will tell.
To answer the other questions said at the beginning, FSG’s model is certainly part of our
success. Their expertise allowed our signings to be specific to fulfilling a need and to checking
off every box we’d want from a player. We picked up players from relegated sides, we picked
up players that had raw potential, and we picked up players who flopped at previous clubs. We
searched the areas where no one else would and we overtook the rest of the world. We worked
smarter and harder, and FSG is an important component of that success. As for whether that
success can be repeated, I’ve seen numerous baseball teams operate like this for 20+ years
and never really be terrible, so it’s certainly sustainable. However, as City and Chelsea become
smarter as they beef up their analytical staff, it’s important to keep spending to try and stay
ahead of them. We don’t have to spend as much as them, I don’t think once in my scenario did
I break above £50 million for anyone. But we still have to constantly improve upon whatever
weaknesses are there, because they will too. I trust we’ll get through this rough patch, we’ll
likely be fine for next season and beyond. But we’ve got to get back to making smart
purchases without being scared of spending, because that’s what got us to the top
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