Sell to Buy
ARTICLE BY MATTY
I think it’s safe to say that the “sell-to-buy” model of FSG is one of the more controversial
aspects of their ownership amongst the Liverpool fan base. Both financially and logically, it
makes sense; getting rid of players you don’t want in order to fund the purchases of players
you do want. However, in the warped football landscape where certain clubs can buy the
world, Liverpool’s margin of error in signing players is small due to this model, although we’ve
managed just fine under it. However, after a season of disappointment and disaster, very few of
which was Liverpool’s own doing I must add, Liverpool’s transfer business so far has boiled
down to the re-signing of Adrian, the signing of the brilliantly talented Ibrahima Konate, and the
unfortunate departure of Gini Wijnaldum. We are expected to sign a midfielder and forward at
some point, but that’s a bit tricky right now (although recent news might’ve made that much
easier). Why is it tricky? Let’s dive into it.
So right now, the sale of Marko Grujic to Porto pending, Liverpool have a completely maxed out squad. Although the sale of Grujic will open up a spot, we currently cannot register any
new signings at the moment since we used Gini’s vacancy to register Konate and no other first
team players have left the club. However, with funds also being short, the sales of players are
now doubly important: they open up spots for new signings upon departure, and the funds
gained from their sales will finance new replacements. However, given the caliber of player
Liverpool are surely looking for to bolster the squad heading into the new season, it will take a
good amount of money to buy them. The figure I’ve seen mentioned all summer that must be
raised for signings? £70 million, at minimum, and it is likely we might need up to £80 million.
However, looking at the run-down of players that either wish to leave the club or the club is
looking to sell (which is not always the same thing), it seems quite possible to reach that
number. Who will be sold, and for how much? Here’s my best guess.
So obviously Grujic is being sold relatively soon, what with his contract length at Porto having
already been revealed by Fab Romano. So I’d imagine that’s anywhere from £10 million to £15
million that Porto will pay for him. There’s three more players that have been linked with
departures so far for a similar fee: Harry Wilson, Xherdan Shaqiri, and Nat Phillips. Expect a
similar fee for their departure, ideally giving us about £60 million from those four, although
expect a figure more like £50 million gained from their sales. That will certainly give us enough
for a new midfielder, for instance. Beyond those four, however, there had recently been word
that Neco Williams wishes to leave the club for more first-team football elsewhere, and that
Liverpool, despite their best efforts to keep him, will sell for £10 million. Optimistically, there’s
the entire budget that’s needed gained off of five players leaving. As for Neco’s replacement?
Highly-touted academy prospect Conor Bradley seems likely to be the heir apparent, due to
my pride for Irish players I can barely contain myself writing that. And if he needs a year, we still
have one year left on the contract of James Milner should we need an emergency right back. If
more money is needed, Divock Origi looks likely to leave, although I can’t say I have any clue
what someone would pay for him. Anywhere from £5 million to £20 million is my guess, £20
million being optimistic. So, in an ideal situation, that’s £90 million gained, and in a cynical
situation, that’s about £70 million. Enough to sign the two players we want. And if we’re really
desperate, Sheyi Ojo, Taiwo Awoniyi, Ben Woodburn and even Loris Karius should get us over
the top. Ojo would go for a few thousand, Awoniyi for at least £5 million, Woodburn for a
similar price, and Karius for a negative price to some fifth-tier German side, if we’re lucky.
To explain why this hasn’t happened yet, let’s remember that Wilson, Shaqiri, and Williams all
competed in the Euros and are scheduled to return to preseason training this week. Assuming
they’re fit, Klopp will likely give them an opportunity to impress both their manager and any
potential buyers before making a sale. If the preseason goes well, perhaps each of them can
boost their price, making it all the more easier to sell them off to the highest bidder.
Furthermore, Klopp uses the preseason as a means to assess where players have improved
and he’ll often give his fringe players a fair shot to impress. For example, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has found himself as the standout of the preseason training thus far, training in
four different positions; as a striker, winger, attacking midfielder, and central midfielder he has
flourished, making himself look useful to Klopp as a utility player, if nothing else. I’m actually
very intrigued to see how this striker thing works out with the Ox. He certainly has the scoring
range to do it, if nothing else, and it could be a way for him to consistently get on the pitch.
Another couple of players that have impressed so far? Joel Matip and Naby Keita, both of them
using the opportunity of the preseason to try and prove themselves as options to Klopp and to,
crucially, stay healthy. Lastly, on a personal note, Takumi Minamino and Ben Davies have so far
been the toughest to predict in regards to whether or not they will be sold. We do not currently
seem interested in selling either of them, and that means they will either stay and fight for a
spot in the team or they’ll be loaned out. Personally, if we’re selling Nat I think we have to keep
Davies and pray he stays healthy. It makes sense to carry five center backs this year
considering the position was absolutely decimated by injury last year. As for Minamino, I just
keep waiting for that guy from Salzburg to show up again, because that guy could’ve been a
crafty squad player for us. I don’t know why he hasn’t been good for us so far, except maybe
the physicality of the Premier League is just too much for him? His future with the club isn’t
nearly as cut and dried as everyone else I’ve mentioned so far, so this really is his last shot to
make an impression before the club gives up on him and looks to sell.
Lastly, why not analyze who Liverpool could potentially be buying? For the forward position,
Romano has stated that we will likely buy the forward first, and then the midfielder. As for what
type of forward, Romano believes that, due to the concerns over Mane and Salah possibly
leaving for AFCON, it’s likely the forward will be someone who is adept at playing on the wing,
except that doesn’t rule out a player who’s predominantly a striker. The one forward we were
consistently linked with was Donyell Malen, who had the pace and finishing ability to play
anywhere in our front three. However, due to other reasons, I didn’t think he’d be coming and it
looks extremely unlikely as of this moment in time. Expect someone in the mould of Diogo Jota
to be bought at some point this summer, someone who can play centrally but would fit
anywhere in the front three. As for the midfield, we can assume that we’re looking for someone
with similar qualities to Gini, and while I don’t think anyone we’ve been linked to so far will sign
for us (because Liverpool are super tight about all of this stuff, which is a very good thing),
expect that signing to maybe not start immediately, but become an eventual starter with the
tactical flexibility to play in different formations. Furthermore, expect both signings to be the
typical Liverpool signing: someone from a lower level side that’s 24 or younger. Every signing
we’ve made under Klopp, with the exception of Thiago, has seemed to have followed this rule.
Especially since we’ve been building up the future of the club in the last few transfer windows,
expect more of the same for this window.
In conclusion, I can’t say for certain that any of this will happen, but this is my best guess. We
need the money, we know what threshold must be met to make the signings we need, and we
know who’s likely leaving. Regarding my departures, the only one I’m somewhat unsure of is
Phillips, since it’s possible we could try and sell Davies instead if we’re banking on Origi’s sale
giving us the money that Phillips’ sale would’ve done. That would keep Nat as the fifth center
back, which I’d be very happy with considering how well he did towards the end of last season.
As for who’s coming in, I’ve got some players on my mind but I can’t say with any certainty
who will be signed. All I know is that Klopp and Edwards usually sign the right people so I’m
confident in whoever they bring in.
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