The fine margins of transition

Embed from Getty Images

We’ve seen a period of dominance from ourselves and City in recent seasons. One point separating the two teams in the last four years tells you everything you need to know. They’ve had more success in the PL and we’ve had more success in Europe but there has been very little difference between the two teams, with the finest margins tipping the balance one way or the other.

This season however, there is change afoot in both camps. If you compare and contrast the business done by the two teams so far this summer, I can’t help but feel City’s business – especially outgoings, has been a little drastic.

So far they’ve sold Sterling, Jesus and looks like Zinchenko is going to follow Jesus to Arsenal. Fernandinho has gone, there’s rumours Gundogan could be going as well and if Barca can sell De Jong to United, they’re apparently confident they can sign Bernardo Silva.

Everybody has been so focused on them signing Haaland that all these outgoings have gone somewhat under the radar but when you look at that list, while they may not all be guaranteed starters for City, there’s still a lot of talented, tried and tested winners in that team.

If we just look at the confirmed outgoings, Fernandinho has been a colossus for them for a decade, Sterling is again, a very reliable player across multiple positions who’s scoring stats for City are excellent. Jesus is another player who has tonnes of quality and guarantees you a hard shift and a goal threat, as we know only too well. Zinchenko is another very reliable, hard working player who would be first choice for most clubs and if they were to lose Bernardo Silva that would be a huge blow to them, regardless if they sign anyone else.

Now Pep Guardiola is no fool, he no doubt has a plan and I’ve no doubt they’ll be very good again this season but what those outgoings does mean is that their new signings HAVE to hit the ground running. Haaland probably will, he’s literally been bred for this, grew up in England, very familiar with the PL and has all the physical attributes. Alvarez however, is a complete unknown arriving from South America. It will be a big culture shock for him and he’ll do very well to be the equal of Sterling and Jesus in his first season. Phillips is a good player but he’s not what you’d call a game changing midfield signing and again, he’ll do well to be as good as Fernandinho has been for them. Add into the mix the very underwhelming displays from Grealish last year and I can’t help but feel as things stand, City are weaker than they were last season. Maybe not their first 11 but definitely their squad depth.

Compared to the work we’ve done, you could make the same claims, pointing to the big goals Origi has scored and how effective Minamino was in the cup competitions and that would be true but the fact is, in the big competitions they barely got a sniff so they won’t really be missed in that regard. Losing Mane is a big blow of course but Diaz had pretty much already usurped him on the LW and that was with just being thrown in mid season, not speaking a word of English etc. Properly settled in and with a preseason under his belt, I expect he’ll kick on again this season.

That brings us to our one big unknown – Nunez. The major difference between him and Haaland however is there’s absolutely no pressure on Nunez to hit the ground running. I actually expect he won’t start on the first day of the season and will be gradually introduced throughout the first half of the season, much like we saw with Robbo and Fabinho. We still have Diaz, Bobby, Jota and Salah which gives us plenty tried and tested quality options to allow Nunez the time to find his feet.

Same goes for Carvalho, he’s under no pressure whatsoever to make an instant impact. The speed of his own development will dictate how much game time he sees next season, not through the team NEEDING him to go out and put in big performances, the way you suspect it will be for Alvarez.

Again the outgoing Neco was on loan last season, so again it’s not like he’ll be missed from the squad in the way Zinchenko will be for City.

Now, there’s still a long way to go in the window and City could still make a flurry of signings but I’m never a fan of making wholesale changes in one window. It very rarely works, trying to introduce too many new players at once.

To that end, I think City may have been a little gung ho allowing a number of trusted players to leave at the same time and replacing them with somewhat unknowns. With the margins being so fine between the two clubs in recent years and both having a somewhat transitional transfer window, I can’t help but feel our transition should be a little more smooth and that might just tip the balance in our favour. Anyway I wish the bloody season would hurry up and start. Walk on!!